National Grid publish Future Energy Scenarios

National Grid produce their Future Energy Scenarios (FES) each year to identify a range of credible scenarios for the next 30 years and beyond. These consider how much energy we
might need and where it could come from. They look at what the changes might mean for the industry and for its customers. Stakeholder feedback is an important element of this activity.

The key messages from the scenarios are:

  1. We are entering a new world of energy. The expected growth of low carbon and decentralised generation means the electricity system will need to change.
  2. Electric vehicle growth goes hand in hand with electricity decarbonisation. Smart charging and vehicle-to-grid can actively support the decarbonisation of electricity.
  3. Action on heat is essential and needs to gather pace in the 2020s to meet carbon reduction targets. A mix of low carbon heating solutions and better thermal efficiency of buildings is needed.
  4. Gas will play a role in providing reliable, flexible energy supplies for the foreseeable future. New technologies and sources of low carbon gas can decarbonise the whole energy sector.
  5. Two of the four scenarios, Two Degrees and Community Renewables, meet the 2050 carbon reduction target but in different ways.
  6. In all our scenarios, the level of decentralised energy increases. In terms of electricity  supply, there is a significant increase in smaller scale generators, such as solar and wind turbines, which are not connected directly to the transmission network. Decentralised gas supplies will increase from a low base in all the scenarios. On the demand side, data exchange technologies and business models are developing and these allow consumers to move away from traditional models of energy trading.